From Tariffs to Trust: Volatility Separates Partners from Vendors

by | Apr 29, 2025 | Articles

Stock market

By Jeremy Becker, Founder and CRO at Cloverleaf AI

In our last discussion, we explored how tariffs are quietly derailing state and local budgets—from school construction projects being downsized to affordable housing plans stalling midstream.

But if you think the story ends with rising material costs, you’re missing the bigger picture.

Tariffs are merely the tip of the iceberg. What they’re truly exposing is a trust deficit between vendors and state and local governments (SLG). In these turbulent times, trust has become the most valuable currency.

This isn’t theoretical. It’s happening in real time. Let’s talk about what that means for public sector sellers.

The Current Landscape: A Data-Driven Perspective

Recent reports shed light on the challenges SLG entities are grappling with:

  • Decline in Procurement Opportunities: The state, local, and education (SLED) market experienced a 6.0% decline in opportunities in Q3 2024, largely due to new fiscal year budget adjustments and the expiration of federal stimulus funds. ​GovWin IQ

  • Fiscal Constraints Post-Federal Aid: The National League of Cities highlighted that as federal aid diminishes, municipalities face the challenge of balancing their budgets while addressing pressing infrastructure needs. ​National League of Cities

  • Economic Pressures on Construction: The U.S. construction industry, valued at $1.8 trillion, is navigating significant economic pressures, including inflation and labor shortages, which are driving up costs and causing project delays. ​PBMares

These statistics underscore a harsh reality: SLG leaders are under immense pressure to deliver essential services and infrastructure amidst tightening budgets and economic unpredictability.

Trust: The New Benchmark for Vendor Relationships

In this climate, SLG leaders are not just seeking vendors; they’re seeking partners who can navigate these challenges alongside them. The question isn’t merely about who offers the best product or service, but who can they trust when unforeseen challenges arise?

Building Trust: Strategies for Vendors

To position yourself as a trusted partner in the SLG space:

  1. Transparent Communication: Keep clients informed about potential challenges, be it supply chain disruptions or cost fluctuations. Proactive communication fosters trust.​
  2. Flexible Contracting: Offer adaptable contract terms that account for economic volatility, allowing for adjustments as circumstances change.​
  3. Collaborative Problem-Solving: Engage with clients to develop contingency plans, demonstrating a commitment to shared success.
  4. Continuous Support: Beyond project completion, provide ongoing assistance and check-ins to address emerging challenges promptly.​

My Take

Economic volatility is the crucible in which vendor reputations are forged. It’s not just about delivering a product or service; it’s about being a steadfast partner when the going gets tough. In the SLG market, where stakes are high and resources are limited, trust is the differentiator that turns vendors into long-term allies.

In Part 3 of this series, we’ll delve into actionable strategies for vendors to not only survive but thrive by aligning with the evolving needs and constraints of SLG procurement teams.

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